http://wiki.jackslab.org/index.php?action=history&feed=atom&title=Bayes 2026-09-11T05:44:52Z 本wiki的该页面的版本历史 MediaWiki 1.19.2 http://wiki.jackslab.org/index.php?title=Bayes&diff=13437&oldid=prev 2020-02-28T02:33:25Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">基本思想</span></span></p> <table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <tr valign='top'> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">←上一版本</td> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">2020年2月28日 (五) 02:33的版本</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第4行：</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第4行：</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* 样本中金子含量我知道</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* 样本中金子含量我知道</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">某种骚方法能分类成两份，一份含量高（提纯成功），一份含量低（垃圾）</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">某种骚方法能将其分类成两份，一份含量高（提纯成功），一份含量低（垃圾）</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* 骚方法也有成功率</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* 骚方法也有成功率</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* 提纯成功的金子含量已知，则可求得是金子时提纯成功率</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* 提纯成功的金子含量已知，则可求得是金子时提纯成功率</div></td></tr> </table>

Comcat http://wiki.jackslab.org/index.php?title=Bayes&diff=13309&oldid=prev 2020-02-16T05:52:24Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">历时诠释思想</span></span></p> <table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <tr valign='top'> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">←上一版本</td> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">2020年2月16日 (日) 05:52的版本</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第53行：</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第53行：</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* P (D) 得到数据 D 的概率，是标准化常量</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* P (D) 得到数据 D 的概率，是标准化常量</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</div></td></tr> </table>

Comcat http://wiki.jackslab.org/index.php?title=Bayes&diff=13308&oldid=prev 2020-02-16T05:52:11Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">乳腺癌筛查</span></span></p> <table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <tr valign='top'> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">←上一版本</td> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">2020年2月16日 (日) 05:52的版本</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第42行：</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第42行：</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">== 历时诠释思想 ==</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">“历时”意味着某些事情随着时间而发生</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">另外一种思想理解 Bayes 定理：事件 H 的概率随着看到的新数据集 D 而变化</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* P (H | D) 后验概率，即：有数据 D 后的事件 H 的概率</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* P (H) 先验概率，即：事件 H 的假设概率</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* P (D | H) 似然度，即：在该事件下，得到数据 D 的概率</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* P (D) 得到数据 D 的概率，是标准化常量</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</div></td></tr> </table>

Comcat http://wiki.jackslab.org/index.php?title=Bayes&diff=13307&oldid=prev 2020-02-16T05:36:41Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Overview</span></span></p> <table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <tr valign='top'> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">←上一版本</td> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">2020年2月16日 (日) 05:36的版本</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第1行：</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第1行：</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[文件:Bayes-01.jpg | 660px]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[文件:Bayes-01.jpg | 660px]]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Overview </del>==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">基本思想 </ins>==</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* 样本中金子含量我知道</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* 样本中金子含量我知道</div></td></tr> </table>

Comcat http://wiki.jackslab.org/index.php?title=Bayes&diff=13306&oldid=prev 2020-02-16T05:31:36Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">曲奇饼问题</span></span></p> <table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <tr valign='top'> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">←上一版本</td> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">2020年2月16日 (日) 05:31的版本</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第18行：</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第18行：</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">其实是个分类问题：</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">其实是个 Bayes 分类问题：</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* 香草曲奇的总概率：5/8</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* 香草曲奇的总概率：5/8</div></td></tr> </table>

Comcat http://wiki.jackslab.org/index.php?title=Bayes&diff=13305&oldid=prev 2020-02-16T05:30:50Z

<p></p> <table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <tr valign='top'> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">←上一版本</td> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">2020年2月16日 (日) 05:30的版本</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第1行：</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第1行：</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[文件:Bayes-01.jpg | <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">800px</del>]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[文件:Bayes-01.jpg | <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">660px</ins>]]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Overview ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Overview ==</div></td></tr> </table>

Comcat http://wiki.jackslab.org/index.php?title=Bayes&diff=13304&oldid=prev 2020-02-16T05:30:29Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">乳腺癌筛查</span></span></p> <table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <tr valign='top'> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">←上一版本</td> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">2020年2月16日 (日) 05:30的版本</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第34行：</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第34行：</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* X 光呈现阳性 (Positive) 的人，乳腺癌概率 4/13；阴性 (Negative) 的人，乳腺癌概率 1/87</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* X 光呈现阳性 (Positive) 的人，乳腺癌概率 4/13；阴性 (Negative) 的人，乳腺癌概率 1/87</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[文件:Bayes-02.jpg | <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">800px</del>]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[文件:Bayes-02.jpg | <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">650px</ins>]]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>则 乳腺癌的阳性率 = 阳性时乳腺癌率*阳性率 / 乳腺癌率 = 4/13 * 0.13 / 0.05 = 8.75%</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>则 乳腺癌的阳性率 = 阳性时乳腺癌率*阳性率 / 乳腺癌率 = 4/13 * 0.13 / 0.05 = 8.75%</div></td></tr> </table>

Comcat http://wiki.jackslab.org/index.php?title=Bayes&diff=13303&oldid=prev 2020-02-16T05:30:10Z

<p></p> <table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <tr valign='top'> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">←上一版本</td> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">2020年2月16日 (日) 05:30的版本</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第1行：</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第1行：</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[文件:Bayes-01.jpg | 800px]]</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Overview ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Overview ==</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第32行：</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第34行：</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* X 光呈现阳性 (Positive) 的人，乳腺癌概率 4/13；阴性 (Negative) 的人，乳腺癌概率 1/87</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* X 光呈现阳性 (Positive) 的人，乳腺癌概率 4/13；阴性 (Negative) 的人，乳腺癌概率 1/87</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[文件:Bayes-02.jpg | 800px]]</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>则 乳腺癌的阳性率 = 阳性时乳腺癌率*阳性率 / 乳腺癌率 = 4/13 * 0.13 / 0.05 = 8.75%</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>则 乳腺癌的阳性率 = 阳性时乳腺癌率*阳性率 / 乳腺癌率 = 4/13 * 0.13 / 0.05 = 8.75%</div></td></tr> </table>

Comcat http://wiki.jackslab.org/index.php?title=Bayes&diff=13300&oldid=prev 2020-02-16T05:24:21Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">曲奇饼问题</span></span></p> <table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <tr valign='top'> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">←上一版本</td> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">2020年2月16日 (日) 05:24的版本</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第10行：</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第10行：</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== 曲奇饼问题 ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== 曲奇饼问题 ==</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 碗 1 中有 30 个香草曲奇、10 个巧克力曲奇</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 碗 2 中有 20 个香草曲奇、20 个巧克力曲奇</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">则取到的香草曲奇在碗 1 的概率是多少？</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">其实是个分类问题：</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 香草曲奇的总概率：5/8</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 碗 1 香草曲奇的概率：3/4；碗 2 香草曲奇的概率：1/2</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 分类到 碗 1 概率 1/2，碗 2 的概率 1/2</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">则 P（碗 1 | 香草曲奇） = 3/4 * 1/2 / 5/8 = 3/5</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;</div></td></tr> </table>

Comcat http://wiki.jackslab.org/index.php?title=Bayes&diff=13299&oldid=prev 2020-02-16T05:15:18Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">乳腺癌筛查</span></span></p> <table class='diff diff-contentalign-left'> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <col class='diff-marker' /> <col class='diff-content' /> <tr valign='top'> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">←上一版本</td> <td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black;">2020年2月16日 (日) 05:15的版本</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第18行：</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">第18行：</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* X 光筛选人群，13% 阳性 (Positive)，87% 阴性 (Negative)</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* X 光筛选人群，13% 阳性 (Positive)，87% 阴性 (Negative)</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* X 光呈现阳性 (Positive) 的人，乳腺癌概率 4/13；阴性 (Negative) 的人，乳腺癌概率 1/87</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* X 光呈现阳性 (Positive) 的人，乳腺癌概率 4/13；阴性 (Negative) 的人，乳腺癌概率 1/87</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>则 乳腺癌的阳性率 = 阳性时乳腺癌率*阳性率 / 乳腺癌率 = 4/13 * 0.13 / 0.05 = 8.75%</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>则 乳腺癌的阳性率 = 阳性时乳腺癌率*阳性率 / 乳腺癌率 = 4/13 * 0.13 / 0.05 = 8.75%</div></td></tr> </table>

Comcat